Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
